Graeme Philipson, group founder of Strategic Publishing, has spotted a few IT trends over the last twenty years.  Seven major ones in fact - each one as relevant to business as it is to technology. 

Speaking to large audiences at IBM seminars recently, Philipson stressed the importance of selecting a technology partner who's strategy is aligned with where business and IT have been, are going and will be going in the year's to come.

"After all" he says "you don't want to get caught on the wrong side of history". 

So just what are these observations or "pillars of wisdom" he's referring to?  What do we need to know about IT in the last few decades that's going to equip us for the future?  Here's a quick summary.

The first of his seven pillars he introduced is speed. You have probably noticed your life is starting to run a lot faster.  Unless you live on Great Barrier Island it's only going to get faster. Mobile phones mean people can find us fast. Emails take minutes where letters took days. Instant Messaging type technologies mean we're "approaching real-time with the help of increasingly powerful computers," as Philipson puts it.  "Business activity durations are trending towards zero," he adds.

The next pillar is integration and Philipson used the following diagram to help visualise how  technology has developed during the last four decades and how various technologies are merging towards one integrated e-business suite.  Coincidently, it's also the trend that IBM's WebSphere is built around.

Volume is the next key observation.  Just as we come to terms with kilobyte, megabyte, gigabyte and terabyte, a whole new range or terminology arises.  For example: a petabyte represents the volume of the world's libraries, a exabyte would be roughly the digital size of every word ever said, a zettabyte would represent every grain of sand in the world and finally, a yottabyte would be the equivalent of every atom in the body of 7000 people.  It's no surprise then that 'storage' is becoming such a big issue these days.

Next up: reach. Quoting Intel co-founder Gordon Moore on the pace of semiconductor technology, he said "the number of transistors on a chip doubles every 18 months." The technology improvements have provided the reach for rapid expansion, so much so that Philipson has his own law based on the observation that "the number of corporate application users multiplied by a factor of ten every ten years during the sixties, seventies and eighties. Historically, he said, "the Internet was inevitable."

Intelligence is the fifth pillar.  Not only data mining but also embedded intelligence which is becoming commonplace.  Philipson cited IBM's self-correcting and dynamic system adoption as examples. They have the ability to to be plugged in, recognise existing systems connected to a network and self-install accordingly.

The next pillar is focus. Companies are gaining greater and greater focus on their core competencies.   

Technology cost trends are the last pillar of IT wisdom.  As Philipson points out, the long-term trend line towards commoditisation of most aspects of IT is having a significant effect on lowering costs across the board.  Where once technology was built on a do-it-yourself basis, now it's out-of-the-box software and hardware that dominates most company server rooms.

This diagram demonstrates the trend towards production, as opposed to DIY technology throughout the decades.
 

The other cost-related trend identified is the move towards variable and away from fixed costs.

This is one of the strongest trends and a key determinant to IBM's IT-on-Demand strategy.

To learn more about IBM's vision and how ceo Lou Palmisano intends to implement it, read the following article:

The New Blue - CEO's masterplan to restore it to greatness  Lou Gerstner saved Big Blue. Now it's up to new CEO Sam Palmisano to restore it to greatness. A bold new vision of e-Business-on-Demand could be make or break for the re-rising star of the IT industry…  read more

PRG channels harmonise with WebSphere  Pacific Retail Group is betting on IBM's WebSphere suite of products to take its stores into the 21st century by fully integrating its on-line presence with back-end store systems... read more

June 2003

IBM boss Sam Palmisano's vision of the interconnected enterprise of the future:

"An enterprise who's business processes are integrated end-to-end across the company and with key partners, suppliers and customers, and which can respond with speed to any customer demand, market opportunity or external threat…"       

Oct 2002